Is already the twelfth month 20, the snake years steps closer. The enthusiasm of the citizens to buy necessities is also higher, the rice continues to speed up the shipment, parts and drive the price of rice is higher. But overall, the rice market in 2012 is relatively poor, the overall trend is even weaker than rice. Rice prices weaker? Is the lack of demand for rice or other reasons? This paper tries to analysis is as follows:
Domestic rice demand is booming
In recent years, along with the accelerating of urbanization and population growth rigidity, eating rice population continues to increase, coupled with the industrial demand for rice is also with the improvement of people's living standard improving, rice demand has kept steady increase trend in our country, the increasing demand and stimulating domestic rice. According to the national related department estimates that 2012/2013 of annual domestic demand will reach 201.5 million tons of rice, year-on-year increase of 3.1 million tons, this is the first time in our country has reached the level of 200 million tons. Among them, the food consumption is expected to be 172 million tons, year-on-year increase of 3 million tons, 28.26 million tons forage and industrial demand, year-on-year increase of 2.26 million tons. Strong growth momentum. And can be seen from the supply side and demand for rice is very strong. According to statistics, 1 - December, 2012, the national rice production of 107.7 million tons, up 23.33% from a year earlier.
In the domestic rice processing capacity greatly increased at the same time, rice imports have also increased dramatically. According to the customs latest statistics, in 2012 China imported 2.316 million tons of rice, increased 3.1 times over the previous year, as the highest level since 2000. At the same time exports of 279000 tons of rice. Down 45.9% year on year. Full-year net imports of 2.037 million tons. According to the U.S. department of agriculture, according to data from the China imported 2.6 million tons of white rice in 2012, from 575000 tons in 2011 increased significantly. Because than the shelf life of rice paddy, rice output commonly after basic to be consumed, which can deduce the overall domestic demand for rice in 2012 is still growing rapidly.
Domestic rice market weak in rice
Although relatively strong demand for rice in China in 2012, but the price is not because of the demand continued to be strong, and instead present a high fall trends, and weak overall trend on rice.
M weak rice
Rice and rice, a as raw material, a is the finished product after processing, prices in general are basically identical. But affected by the policy or messages, etc, the shape of the paddy and rice sometimes differ, there are strong with the weak trend. The cause of weak strong rice 2012 meters is relatively complex, main reason in general is as follows:
Plentiful supply, rice market competition is intense
Although domestic demand for rice, output growth is faster, more adequate supply. This is because the excess domestic rice processing capacity has been guaranteed as long as raw materials, demand would quickly get satisfaction. Implement after the "9" in rice production, raw material purchase is not a problem, therefore, competition between enterprises has been more intense. And in the domestic rice processing production growth at the same time, foreign rice is surging in and imports a significant growth. Make more sufficient domestic supplies, and more competitive, who also dare not easily to raise prices. Processing enterprises fight for market share, and sometimes for a low price promotions, and even take the break-even sales strategy, lead to rice market is relatively weak, enterprise management is more difficult. It is understood that in 2012, a considerable amount of processing enterprises profit significantly decline from a year earlier, parts processing enterprise management more difficult.
Acquisition policy impact on the movements of rice and rice are different
In 2012, domestic rice market due to many times by policy intervention policy rise or bounce. A country is the Spring Festival after the sharply raised the minimum purchase price of rice, 2012 by the boost, rice market was the first to rise, the rice market passive with rose. 2 for northeast area since November 2011, initiated the reserve policy, a large number of japonica rice stocks in the store and not round out in time, lead to tight after second quarter japonica rice market, once appear, japonica rice market rises. Three is in the middle of November 2012 in northeast China and anhui launched a minimum purchase plan, under the policy to prop up the market to support rice market to stabilize. Because of the support policy for first is rice, so the implementation of the policy, is often market take the lead in rising or rebound of rice, and rice have higher degree of marketization, because of the plentiful supply can only passively follow, situation is relatively weak, it is not surprising.
The impact of the price of rice
Domestic rice imports surged in 2012, it not only increase the domestic supply of rice, and imported rice prices are generally low, accordingly lower the domestic price level in rice. It is understood that in the middle of December 2012 imports from Vietnam rice price is about $410 per ton on average, compared with domestic major rice producing areas of indica rice purchase prices were above $410 a tonne, rice prices up to $600 / tons, can be found in countries such as Vietnam rice prices are low. According to customs statistics, in 2012 Vietnam rice accounts for 66.7% of imports, Pakistan (25%), Thailand (7.6%), the three accounts for 99.3% of imports. Imports from countries such as Vietnam, Pakistan and India such rice accounts for over 92% of total imports. A large number of low-priced imports of meters into the country, it is bound to lower domestic prices for rice, the total level. At the same time, some enterprises also take part in rice mixed against cheap imports of rice in order to reduce the production cost, improve the competitiveness. The move to a certain extent also inhibits rice prices.
Byproduct of rice price is higher
Since 2012 feed demand, byproduct of rice price is higher, by-product processing enterprise income increase, also makes the enterprise is very price for rice prices will diminish. According to the monitoring, the end of 2012, hubei wuhan factory price 1.05 yuan/jin of rice bran oil, a rise of 0.10 yuan/catty; in the early Zhejiang quzhou rice chaff leather wholesale price of 1.25 yuan/catty, a rise of 0.15 yuan in the early. At the same time the price of rice and rice chaff is better also. By-product part prices make up for the loss of processing enterprises for the rice market downturn, will also weaken the enterprise stand price.
Projections for 2013 the price of rice is still difficult to stronger than rice
Although the overall movements of rice and the rice will be consistent, and movements and weak in paddy rice in 2012, the New Year stronger than paddy rice prices in power increase, but weaker prices due to last year's factors has not changed radically, is expected to New Year the price of rice is still difficult to stronger than rice.
A is the lowest price increases for basic assurance. In December of last year the national development and reform commission, ministry of finance and the ministry of agriculture are committed to raise minimum grain purchase prices, such as 2013 rice, rice lowest price increases for New Year should be no surprise. Rice has the lowest purchase price increases on the one hand, is likely to stimulate rice market strengthening again, rice will still play a supporting role. On the other hand will continue to improve rice growing enthusiasm of the farmers, the grain yield is expected to continue to harvest. If 2013 harvest of rice, rice supply will continue to improve, and in the second half of the new rice listed after start-up support cannot be ruled out, it is also likely to lead to price of rice is better than rice.
Second, high rice imports. So far, the international rice supply situation is better, prices remain relatively stable, increase substantially less likely. Minimum purchase prices continue to rise, and with the rice rice spreads continue to widen both at home and abroad, it may stimulate rice imports continue to increase. And cheap rice imports will continue to pose a certain impact to domestic prices.
Three is the by-product feed demand, prices will remain high. Since November 2012, the domestic pig prices continue to rise, pig production efficiency greatly improved, can be expected New Year of pig breeding level will be higher than the previous year. And as early as in the earlier, a sharp rise in the price of beef, by this, the price of mutton also appeared to rise, it also helps the development of the industry. The breeding of good will increase the consumption of feed, which would increase the demand of rice by-products, pushing its price. By-products and higher prices, the price rise of power will be weakened.
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